The National Hurricane Center is tracking a total of four systems over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Monday, including one hurricane, one tropical storm and two other disturbances.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of Sept. 21.
What’s out there and where are they?
Hurricane Teddy is 160 miles southeast of Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Beta is 70 miles southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas.
Disturbance 1, also Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, is over the far eastern Atlantic.
Disturbance 2 is over southeastern Florida.
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How likely are they to strengthen?
Hurricane Teddy: Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.
Tropical Storm Beta: Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
Disturbance 1: Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms, not far to the northeast of its center of circulation. Some development is still possible, and the system could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: 60%
- Formation chance through 5 days: 60%
Disturbance 2: Upper-level winds are expected to become marginally conducive for development by Thursday and Friday when the disturbance is forecast to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0%
- Formation chance through 5 days: 20%
Details on named storms
- Location: 160 miles southeast of Bermuda
- Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph
- Present movement: North-northeast at 9 mph
Tropical Storm Beta
- Location: 70 miles southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas
- Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
- Present movement: West at 6 mph
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.
Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across sections of Atlantic Canada.
Tropical Storm Beta
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning between Port Aransas, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are possible from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, Texas later today.
Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
This disturbance is forecast to move southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tracking the tropics in real time
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Beta
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, Texas.